Simulation of tsunami originating from the Manila Trench

Abstract

A 2006 USGS report has identified the Manila subduction zone as a potential source of significant earthquakes. Submarine earthquakes occurring along this Manila subduction zone are potential tsunami sources in the South China Sea SCS affecting countries surrounding the SCS, including Malaysia, Vietnam, Taiwan and Hainan Island. This paper presents credible simulation scenarios of potential tsunamis originating from the submarine earthquakes along the Manila Trench that propagate through the South China Sea (SCS). These tsunamis may pose serious threats to the affected coastal areas. For this simulation, an in-house tsunami simulation model TUNA previously developed by the authors is used. Six earthquake faults identified by the 2006 USGS report are used as potential tsunami sources that generate tsunami waves that propagate towards the coasts of Sabah, Sarawak, Hainan, and Vietnam. The need for community education and preparedness to face any potential tsunami in the region is essential in view of the potential risks posed by these tsunamis.