Application of plant disease models in decision making

Abstract

Plant disease models typically are developed from field studies. The goal is to predict the risk of disease based on monitoring key environmental, host, and pathogen variables. Based on management options and goals, action thresholds can be incorporated into the model to provide advice for suitable control treatments. Models should be evaluated in the field, and actual disease compared to predicted disease. In this paper we focus on practical plant disease management issues and the use of mathematical techniques in designing the corresponding models. We describe relevant examples for each approach pointing out how they deal with issues such as adapting a model to different geographical area, or validating and maintaining the model on a long period.