Rainfall projection corresponding to climate scenarios based on Statistical Down-Scaling Model over Perlis, Malaysia

Abstract

General Circulation Models (GCMs) are used to modelling the responses of the climate system to different scenarios of greenhouse gas and aerosol. However, the model needs to downscale into a fine resolution daily rainfall series appropriate for local scale hydrological impact studies. In this study, Statistical Down-Scaling Model (SDSM) is used to downscale the GCMs simulations from Hadley Centre 3rd generation (HadCM3) with A2 and B2 scenarios for future rainfall over the area of Perlis, Malaysia. The SDSM model is able to simulate satisfactorily the daily rainfall series by giving the average coefficient of correlation (R2) and standard error (SE) during the validation period are 0.11 and 9.88mm/day respectively. The study area is apparently will gain an increasing trend for annual mean rainfall on the 2020s and show the decreasing trend for annual mean rainfall for period 2050s and 2080s for both scenario emissions.